Research pass: sunday, generated 2026-09-20T15:41:45+00:00.
- Zay Flowers is out with a hamstring, downgraded from doubtful on Saturday. His anytime touchdown prop is dropped and Baltimore is repriced around it.
- Rashod Bateman becomes Baltimore's top perimeter receiver and rises from 7.5 to 10.5 at $5,000, moving from sleeper to value. Mark Andrews rises from 8.5 to 9.5 and Derrick Henry from 18.0 to 18.5 on the same news. Lamar Jackson eases from 21.5 to 21.0, since Flowers out costs him his best separator.
- Three new props added, all created by the Flowers news and all confirmed DraftKings prices: Rashod Bateman anytime touchdown +370, Mark Andrews anytime touchdown +200, Derrick Henry anytime touchdown +135.
- Chase Brown is the one real landmine on the slate. A knee kept him out of practice Thursday and Friday, yet Cincinnati attached no game status to him, which is an unusual combination. He is cut from 13.5 to 10.5 and flagged rather than removed, because he is not officially out or doubtful. He sits at FLEX in the Balanced lineup. Check the 11:30am inactive list, and if he is down, Aaron Jones Sr. at $5,900 fits the room.
- Kaelon Black is questionable with a groin and was limited Thursday and Friday. Cut from 9.5 to 8.0 and flagged, not replaced. He sits at RB in Stars and scrubs, which has $1,700 of room, so Aaron Jones Sr. at $5,900 is the swap if Black is inactive.
- A report that Christian McCaffrey had been placed on injured reserve was checked and discarded. It came from a stale article. He returned to full practice, has no game status and is expected to play, so he stays in the pool at 15.5 and stays a fade on price.
- Michael Mayer rises from 8.5 to 10.0. Brock Bowers is doubtful again, which hands Mayer the Raiders tight end job outright for the second straight week.
- Soldier Field is the worst weather on the slate, 20 mph sustained wind and a 94 percent chance of rain. Aaron Jones Sr. rises from 11.5 to 12.5 on the run lean, Justin Jefferson falls from 15.0 to 13.0 despite Jauan Jennings being out, and Colston Loveland eases from 6.5 to 6.0. Foxborough at 75 percent rain and MetLife at 83 percent are wet but calm, and no pool player is in either.
- Bijan Robinson rises from 20.0 to 21.0. Atlanta starts third string quarterback Cooper Rush with Penix out and Tua doubtful, which is the game plan that maximizes his carries.
- Puka Nacua falls from 13.5 to 10.0. He is questionable with a groin and Sean McVay has called him a pre-game decision for Monday night. He was already a fade at $9,300.
- The Eagles defense eases from 8.5 to 8.0. Jonathan Greenard is out with a pectoral for the second straight week. Tennessee's 16.2 implied total is still the second lowest on the slate.
- The David Montgomery rushing under is eased from 0.56 to 0.54 rather than cut. Nico Collins out points Houston toward the run, but Montgomery gained only 60 yards on 20 carries in Week 1 and the market still sits near 70, so 66.5 keeps a small edge. A claim that the line had dropped to 55.5 was checked and discarded as bad data.
- The Chris Olave anytime touchdown estimate is cut from 0.36 to 0.30. He is questionable with a hamstring and a genuine game time call, which is a different bet from the one priced Wednesday.
- Two lineups can no longer be entered. Stack BUF/DET holds six players from Thursday's game and Balanced holds Amon-Ra St. Brown. Both are kept so they grade against the Wednesday call. Of the two that can still be entered, Stars and scrubs leads at 111.5 and Contrarian NYG/LAR is at 109.5.
- Line moves were all modest and none cleared a point on a total. Minnesota at Chicago 48.5 to 47.5, New Orleans at Baltimore 46.5 to 45.5, Cincinnati at Houston 46.5 to 45.5, Dallas in from -4.5 to -3.5 and Kansas City from -6.5 to -6.0. Thursday finished Buffalo 41, Detroit 31.
- Eleven props sit on Thursday's game and are left untouched so they grade against the Wednesday call, the same treatment used in Week 1.
- No prop yardage line or price could be re-pulled. There is still no ODDS_API_KEY, now three weeks running, and the agent assigned to gather prices by hand stalled twice. Every yardage line is the Wednesday number, left alone rather than guessed. Estimates were still revised where news justified it.
- Official inactives for the 1pm games post at 11:30am ET, after this pass was built. Everything here is the final Friday or Saturday designation plus Sunday morning reporting.
Slate
| Game | Spread (home) | Total | Implied away | Implied home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ BUF | -4.5 | 54.5 | 25.0 | 29.5 |
| CAR @ ATL | 2.5 | 43.5 | 23.0 | 20.5 |
| MIN @ CHI | -4.5 | 47.5 | 21.5 | 26.0 |
| PHI @ TEN | 7.0 | 39.5 | 23.2 | 16.2 |
| PIT @ NE | -5.5 | 41.5 | 18.0 | 23.5 |
| GB @ NYJ | 3.5 | 44.5 | 24.0 | 20.5 |
| CLE @ TB | -8.5 | 41.5 | 16.5 | 25.0 |
| NO @ BAL | -8.5 | 45.5 | 18.5 | 27.0 |
| CIN @ HOU | -3.0 | 45.5 | 21.2 | 24.2 |
| JAC @ DEN | -2.5 | 45.5 | 21.5 | 24.0 |
| LV @ LAC | -6.5 | 43.5 | 18.5 | 25.0 |
| WAS @ DAL | -3.5 | 50.5 | 23.5 | 27.0 |
| SEA @ ARI | 3.5 | 40.5 | 22.0 | 18.5 |
| MIA @ SF | -13.5 | 44.5 | 15.5 | 29.0 |
| IND @ KC | -6.0 | 46.5 | 20.2 | 26.2 |
| NYG @ LAR | -7.0 | 47.5 | 20.2 | 27.2 |
Suggested lineups
Three Buffalo pass catchers with Josh Allen, brought back with the two Detroit players who carry the volume. This is the highest total on the slate at 54.5, Buffalo has the top implied total at 29.5, and Detroit has allowed more passing yards than any team in the league. It plays Thursday, so it locks first and cannot be salvaged later in the week. LOCKED: this lineup holds 6 players from Thursday's Detroit at Buffalo game (Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid, Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir), so it can no longer be entered. It stays here to grade against the Wednesday call.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | $9,000 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | $9,200 |
| RB | Kaelon Black | SF | RB | $5,300 |
| WR | DJ Moore | BUF | WR | $6,600 |
| WR | Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | $5,900 |
| WR | Tre' Harris | LAC | WR | $4,900 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | $5,400 |
| FLEX | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | $8,800 |
| DEF | Buccaneers | TB | DEF | $4,800 |
Herbert with Quentin Johnston is the stack, and it only works because Ladd McConkey did not practice Wednesday. The running backs all draw bottom five run defenses: Walker against Indianapolis, Croskey-Merritt against Dallas, Chase Brown in a 46.5 total. Michael Mayer is the leverage piece if Brock Bowers sits again. LOCKED: this lineup holds 1 players from Thursday's Detroit at Buffalo game (Amon-Ra St. Brown), so it can no longer be entered. It stays here to grade against the Wednesday call.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | $7,400 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | $7,600 |
| RB | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | RB | $6,000 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | $8,800 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | $6,000 |
| WR | Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | $5,800 |
| TE | Michael Mayer | LV | TE | $5,300 |
| FLEX | Chase Brown | CIN | RB | $7,600 |
| DEF | Eagles | PHI | DEF | $4,900 |
A Monday night triple stack of Dart, Nabers and Likely with Skattebo as the runner. Dart ran 11 times in Week 1, Nabers and Likely took 59 percent of the targets between them, and the total rose to 47.5 once the Rams lost Myles Garrett. Almost nobody builds around the last game of the week.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jaxson Dart | NYG | QB | $7,400 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $8,900 |
| RB | Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | $6,400 |
| WR | Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | $7,500 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | WAS | WR | $6,100 |
| WR | Emeka Egbuka | TB | WR | $6,500 |
| TE | Isaiah Likely | NYG | TE | $5,500 |
| FLEX | Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | RB | $5,900 |
| DEF | 49ers | SF | DEF | $5,000 |
Jackson, Henry and Lamb are the three expensive pieces, with Mark Andrews as the cheap stack partner at $5,200. Everything else is $6,000 or less: two Washington players in the 50.5 total game, Kaelon Black off his 14 carry Week 1, and Tre' Harris on the McConkey absence.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | $8,800 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | $8,700 |
| RB | Kaelon Black | SF | RB | $5,300 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | $8,500 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | $6,000 |
| WR | Tre' Harris | LAC | WR | $4,900 |
| TE | Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | $5,200 |
| FLEX | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | RB | $6,000 |
| DEF | Eagles | PHI | DEF | $4,900 |
Player pool
QB
| Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Pts/$1k | Tier | Actual | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | DET | $9,000 | 23.5 | 2.61 | core | – | Buffalo carries the slate's top implied total at 29.5 against the worst pass defense in the league through one week, 378 yards allowed. He also ran six times in Week 1. |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | NO | $8,800 | 21.0 | 2.39 | core | – | Still the cleanest high end quarterback on the board, but Flowers out costs him his best separator and the total came down from 46.5 to 45.5. Eased from 21.5. |
| Brock Purdy | SF | MIA | $8,100 | 20.0 | 2.47 | core | – | San Francisco's 29.0 implied total is second on the board and he threw three touchdowns on 34 attempts in Week 1. The risk is that a 13.5 point spread ends his day early. |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | $7,400 | 18.5 | 2.50 | value | – | The Chargers are implied for 25.0 and Herbert took five carries and two inside the 10 in Week 1. At $7,400 he is $1,600 cheaper than Allen. |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | @LAR | $7,400 | 16.0 | 2.16 | sleeper | – | Eleven carries and 54 rushing yards in Week 1 is a real rushing floor, and the Monday night game total climbed to 47.5 after the Rams lost Myles Garrett. |
RB
| Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Pts/$1k | Tier | Actual | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | @BUF | $9,200 | 22.0 | 2.39 | core | – | Took 88 percent of Detroit's carries for 156 yards plus five targets, in the highest total game on the slate at 54.5. |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | CAR | $8,900 | 21.0 | 2.36 | core | – | Atlanta starts third string quarterback Cooper Rush with Penix out and Tua doubtful, which is the shape of a game plan built around Robinson's volume. Up from 20.0. |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | NO | $8,700 | 18.5 | 2.13 | core | – | Flowers out points Baltimore further toward the run in a game it is favored by 8.5 to win. That offsets the total dropping a point. Up from 18.0. |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | MIA | $9,000 | 15.5 | 1.72 | fade | – | Unchanged, after a scare. A report that he had been placed on injured reserve turned out to be a stale article and was discarded. He returned to full practice, carries no game status and is expected to play. Still a fade at $9,000 only because Kaelon Black is $3,700 cheaper in the same backfield. |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | IND | $7,600 | 14.5 | 1.91 | core | – | Twenty three carries for 173 yards in Week 1, now against an Indianapolis run defense ranked 30th at 202 yards allowed, with Kansas City implied for 26.5. |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | @CHI | $5,900 | 12.5 | 2.12 | value | – | Soldier Field is forecast for 20 mph sustained wind and a 94 percent chance of rain, the worst conditions on the slate. That pushes both offenses toward the run and Jones is Minnesota's lead back. Up from 11.5. |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | @DAL | $6,000 | 12.0 | 2.00 | value | – | Sixteen carries, half of Washington's total, against a Dallas run defense tied for 27th, in the second highest total game on the board at 50.5. |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | @LAR | $6,400 | 11.5 | 1.80 | sleeper | – | Forty nine percent of the Giants' carries against a Rams run defense ranked 29th, on Monday night when most lineups are already locked. |
| Chase Brown | CIN | @HOU | $7,600 | 10.5 | 1.38 | value | – | FLAGGED. A knee kept him out of practice Thursday and Friday, yet Cincinnati's final report attached no game status. That combination is unusual and the reporting is inconsistent. Cut from 13.5 rather than removed, because he is not officially out or doubtful. |
| Kaelon Black | SF | MIA | $5,300 | 8.0 | 1.51 | sleeper | – | FLAGGED. Questionable with a groin, limited Thursday and Friday, and expected to play. San Francisco's 29.0 implied total as a 13.5 point favorite is still the second highest on the slate, so the role is worth the risk at $5,300. Cut from 9.5 rather than removed, because questionable does not force a substitution. |
WR
| Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Pts/$1k | Tier | Actual | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | @BUF | $8,800 | 17.0 | 1.93 | core | – | Fourteen targets, a 36 percent share and four red zone targets in Week 1, now against the worst pass defense in the league in the highest total game. |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WAS | $8,500 | 15.5 | 1.82 | core | – | Twenty seven percent of Dallas's targets in a 50.5 total game with a 27.5 implied team total, the second highest on the slate. |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | @CHI | $8,600 | 13.0 | 1.51 | core | – | Jauan Jennings out lifts his target share, but Carson Wentz is throwing it in 20 mph wind and heavy rain. The weather outweighs the target bump. Down from 15.0. |
| DJ Moore | BUF | DET | $6,600 | 12.5 | 1.89 | value | – | Twenty nine percent of Buffalo's targets and 100 yards in Week 1, in the highest implied team total on the board at 29.5. |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | @HOU | $8,800 | 12.0 | 1.36 | fade | – | Four targets in Week 1, a 12 percent share, behind Mike Gesicki, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown. His quarterback is questionable with back tightness and he costs $8,800. |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | @LAR | $7,500 | 11.5 | 1.53 | sleeper | – | Thirty one percent target share on Monday night in a game whose total rose to 47.5 after the Rams lost Myles Garrett to injured reserve. |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | @DAL | $6,000 | 11.0 | 1.83 | value | – | Only four targets in Week 1 to Stefon Diggs's nine, which is why he is $6,000 in a game with a 50.5 total. |
| Stefon Diggs | WAS | @DAL | $6,100 | 10.5 | 1.72 | sleeper | – | Led Washington with nine targets, 31 percent of the team, and is priced $2,400 below the receivers with that role elsewhere. |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | NO | $5,000 | 10.5 | 2.10 | value | – | Zay Flowers was downgraded to out Saturday with a hamstring, which makes Bateman Baltimore's top perimeter target against a New Orleans secondary that Baltimore is favored by 8.5 against. Up from 7.5 at $5,000. |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | CLE | $6,500 | 10.0 | 1.54 | sleeper | – | Twenty two percent of Tampa Bay's targets ahead of Chris Godwin, with Tampa Bay implied for 25.0 against Cleveland. |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | NYG | $9,300 | 10.0 | 1.08 | fade | – | Questionable with a groin that appeared after Thursday's practice, and Sean McVay has called him a pre-game decision. Already a fade on price at $9,300, and a Monday night pre-game decision is not a spot to pay up. Down from 13.5. |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | DET | $5,900 | 9.5 | 1.61 | value | – | Twenty one percent target share plus three red zone targets in Week 1, at $5,900, against Detroit's 378 yards allowed. |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | LV | $5,800 | 9.5 | 1.64 | value | – | Ladd McConkey did not practice Wednesday with a rib injury. Johnston already had six targets in Week 1 and moves into the WR1 role if McConkey sits. |
| Rashee Rice | KC | IND | $7,600 | 8.5 | 1.12 | fade | – | Two targets in Week 1 at $7,600, and Sauce Gardner is expected to shadow Kansas City's top receiver. |
| Tre' Harris | LAC | LV | $4,900 | 8.0 | 1.63 | sleeper | – | Six targets in Week 1 at $4,900, and the same McConkey absence pushes the slot work to him. |
TE
| Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Pts/$1k | Tier | Actual | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | ARI | SEA | $7,500 | 11.5 | 1.53 | core | – | Thirteen targets, a 35 percent share and four red zone targets. The cost is Arizona's 18.5 implied total. |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | DET | $5,400 | 10.0 | 1.85 | value | – | Twenty one percent of Buffalo's targets and 130 yards in Week 1, in the highest implied total on the slate, at $5,400. |
| Michael Mayer | LV | @LAC | $5,300 | 10.0 | 1.89 | value | – | Brock Bowers is doubtful, which hands Mayer the Raiders tight end job outright for the second straight week. The same situation produced a Week 1 change. Up from 8.5. |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | NO | $5,200 | 9.5 | 1.83 | value | – | Flowers out removes Baltimore's most targeted receiver from the red zone picture and Andrews is the most direct beneficiary. Up from 8.5. |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | @LAR | $5,500 | 9.0 | 1.64 | value | – | Caught all eight of his targets for the Giants, a 28 percent share, at $5,500 on Monday night. |
| Travis Kelce | KC | IND | $5,300 | 8.0 | 1.51 | sleeper | – | Five targets and 71 yards against Indianapolis, whose pass defense ranks 28th, and he is not the receiver Sauce Gardner will follow. |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | MIN | $5,800 | 6.0 | 1.03 | fade | – | Healthy and off the injury report entirely, but the Soldier Field forecast caps a tight end who was already a fade on target share. Down from 6.5. |
DEF
| Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Pts/$1k | Tier | Actual | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | PHI | @TEN | $4,900 | 8.0 | 1.63 | core | – | Jonathan Greenard is out with a pectoral for the second straight week, which thins the pass rush. Tennessee's 16.2 implied total is still the second lowest on the slate. Down from 8.5. |
| Buccaneers | TB | CLE | $4,800 | 8.0 | 1.67 | core | – | Cleveland is implied for 16.5 as an 8.5 point road underdog. |
| 49ers | SF | MIA | $5,000 | 7.5 | 1.50 | value | – | Miami carries the lowest implied total on the board at 15.5 and gave up five sacks in Week 1. |
Props
Fair is the de-vigged book probability. Est is the research estimate. Edge is the gap. Recommended means edge of three points or more. These are estimates, not guarantees.
| Player | Market | Side | Line | Book | Odds | Fair | Est | Edge | Result | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moorerec | Rec yds | over | 60.5 | draftkings | -114 | 50% | 60% | +10 | Eight targets for 100 yards in Week 1, 29 percent of Buffalo's share, and Buffalo carries the highest implied team total on the board at 29.5 against Detroit's 378 yards allowed. | |
| Derrick Henryrec | Rush yds | over | 88.5 | sportsbettingdime | -113 | 50% | 60% | +10 | Held. Zay Flowers out leans Baltimore further toward the run as an 8.5 point favorite, which offsets the total coming down from 46.5 to 45.5. Estimate unchanged at 0.60 for two reasons that cancel. | |
| Bijan Robinsonrec | Rush yds | over | 84.5 | sportsbettingdime | -114 | 50% | 60% | +10 | Held, with a firmer reason than Wednesday had. Atlanta starts Cooper Rush with Penix out and Tua doubtful, which is the game plan that maximizes Robinson's carries. Capped at 0.60 rather than raised, because Atlanta's implied total is only 20.5. | |
| Josh Allenrec | Pass yds | over | 249.5 | fanatics | -114 | 50% | 58% | +8 | He threw for 334 yards on 29 attempts in Week 1 and Detroit has allowed 378 passing yards, the most in the league. Buffalo's 29.5 implied total is the highest on the slate. | |
| Derrick Henryrec | Anytime TD | over | – | draftkings | +135 | 43% | 50% | +7 | New. Flowers out points Baltimore further toward the run as an 8.5 point favorite, and Henry is the goal line back on a team implied for 27.0. This is the second Henry prop here and it leans on the same read as the rushing yards over. | |
| Jahmyr Gibbsrec | Rush yds | over | 88.5 | draftkings | -114 | 50% | 57% | +7 | Twenty nine carries in Week 1, 88 percent of Detroit's rushing attempts, for 156 yards. Buffalo has allowed 124 rushing yards, which is mid pack, and the game total of 54.5 means plenty of snaps. | |
| Rashod Batemanrec | Anytime TD | over | – | draftkings | +370 | 21% | 28% | +7 | New on the Zay Flowers news. Flowers was ruled out Saturday with a hamstring and Bateman is Baltimore's top perimeter receiver against a New Orleans defense Baltimore is favored by 8.5 against, with a 27.0 implied total. Held to 0.28 rather than higher because Bateman caught nothing in Week 1, so the target share is a projection rather than a demonstrated one. | |
| Dalton Kincaidrec | Rec yds | over | 49.5 | draftkings | -111 | 50% | 56% | +6 | One hundred thirty receiving yards in Week 1 on six targets, a 21 percent share. This line sits well under what he did, priced off tight end volatility rather than his role. | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brownrec | Rec yds | over | 79.5 | fanduel | -114 | 50% | 56% | +6 | Fourteen targets and a 36 percent share in Week 1, against the pass defense that has allowed the most yards in the league. The 67 yards he actually gained came on short throws, which is the risk. | |
| Travis Kelcerec | Rec yds | over | 42.5 | sportsbettingdime | -114 | 50% | 56% | +6 | Seventy one yards on five targets in Week 1 and a 20 percent share, against an Indianapolis pass defense that has allowed 304 yards, 28th in the league. Sauce Gardner will be following Rashee Rice, not him. | |
| Sam LaPortarec | Rec yds | over | 44.5 | draftkings | -111 | 50% | 55% | +5 | Eight targets and a 21 percent share in Week 1 plus two targets inside the 10, in the highest total game on the slate. | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brownrec | Anytime TD | over | – | fanduel | +110 | 45% | 50% | +5 | Two touchdowns in Week 1 on four red zone targets, two of them inside the 10, and Detroit faces the worst pass defense in the league in the highest total game of the week. | |
| Mark Andrewsrec | Anytime TD | over | – | draftkings | +200 | 33% | 38% | +5 | New on the Flowers news. Andrews is the most direct beneficiary in the red zone with Baltimore's most targeted receiver out, and he is the established option rather than the projected one. Baltimore's 27.0 implied total is third on the slate. | |
| CeeDee Lambrec | Rec yds | under | 75.5 | sportsbettingdime | -115 | 50% | 55% | +4 | Eight targets for 44 yards in Week 1 with George Pickens taking six of his own. The 50.5 game total is the argument the other way, which is why this is a small lean rather than a strong one. | |
| Khalil Shakirrec | Rec yds | over | 44.5 | fanduel | -114 | 50% | 54% | +4 | Six targets, a 21 percent share and three red zone targets in Week 1. The number only needs him to repeat the 50 yards he already produced. | |
| David Montgomeryrec | Rush yds | under | 66.5 | sportsbettingdime | -115 | 50% | 54% | +4 | Eased rather than cut. Nico Collins is out with a hamstring, which points Houston toward the run and works against the under. Pulling the other way, Montgomery managed 60 yards on 20 carries in Week 1 and Cincinnati has allowed 89 rushing yards a game this season, tenth best. Polymarket has the under 70 at 54 percent and SportsLine projects 61.1 yards, so 66.5 still sits on the right side. Estimate 0.56 to 0.54. | |
| Jared Goff | Pass yds | over | 260.5 | draftkings | -113 | 50% | 53% | +3 | He threw 39 times for only 206 yards in Week 1, so this asks for improvement, but Buffalo has allowed 257 passing yards and Detroit is a road underdog in a 54.5 total, which is the script that forces volume. | |
| Chris Olave | Anytime TD | over | – | bet365 | +210 | 30% | 30% | -0 | Downgraded. Olave is questionable with a hamstring and is a genuine game time call, which is a different bet from the healthy one priced Wednesday. The +210 still pays, but the chance of an inactive or a snap count cuts the estimate from 0.36 to 0.30 and the edge with it. | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Anytime TD | over | – | draftkings | -335 | 73% | 70% | -3 | Included as a warning. The role backs it up, 88 percent of the carries and three inside the 10, but 77 percent is a lot to pay on a single game touchdown for a road underdog, and BetMGM is a full tier shorter on comparable backs. | |
| James Cook III | Anytime TD | over | – | caesars | -145 | 56% | 47% | -9 | Included as a warning. Cook took 62 percent of Buffalo's carries but only two inside the 20, while Josh Allen is priced at -110 to score himself and took a carry inside the 10 in Week 1. | |
| Rashee Rice | Anytime TD | over | – | draftkings | +155 | 37% | 26% | -11 | Included as a warning. He saw two targets in Week 1, an 8 percent share, behind Kenneth Walker III, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce, and Sauce Gardner is expected to shadow him. | |
| Ladd McConkey | Anytime TD | over | – | betmgm | +175 | 34% | 22% | -12 | Included as a warning. He did not practice Wednesday with a rib injury and his status is described as up in the air, which is not priced in here. |
Research notes
Week 2, 2026: Wednesday research
Generated Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Games run Thursday September 17 through Monday September 21. Sixteen games, full slate, no byes.
Three things shaped this pass and are worth stating before the picks.
There is still no ODDS_API_KEY in .env, so scripts/run.sh odds 2 wednesday failed the same way it did in Week 1. There is no de-vigged multi-book pull and no odds/props_summary.json. Game lines were rebuilt from the ESPN scoreboard API into odds/game_lines.json so the slate table still renders, and every prop price below was gathered by hand from public pages and is cited in research/props.md.
The salary pull also failed on the first attempt. The DailyFantasyFuel page timed out mid download at 524 KB of 1.7 MB. Refetching the page with compression and parsing it locally worked: 413 players across 32 teams, all tagged week 2. Those are the salaries used everywhere below.
Two of the seven research agents stalled and had to be rerun, and the usage agent stalled twice. That file was built directly instead, from the ESPN game summary API for all sixteen Week 1 games. Every usage number in this document is a counted number from the official play by play rather than a scraped estimate. The cost is that snap share, routes run, air yards and aDOT are genuinely missing this week, and research/usage.md says so rather than guessing them.
Slate overview
The market has one game clearly ahead of the rest. Detroit at Buffalo on Thursday night carries a 54.5 total, the highest on the board, and it opened at 51.5 to 53.5 with Buffalo at -3. Both numbers moved up. Buffalo's 29.5 implied team total leads the slate.
San Francisco is second at 29.0, but it gets there as a 13.5 point favorite over Miami, which is the largest spread on the board and the shape of a game that ends early. Baltimore and Dallas are tied at 27.5, the Rams are at 27.2, and Chicago and Kansas City share 26.5.
At the bottom, Miami is implied for 15.5, Tennessee 16.2 and Cleveland 16.5. Those three offenses are close to unplayable.
Four games are worth avoiding outright. Philadelphia at Tennessee has the second lowest total at 39.5 with a full touchdown spread. Cleveland at Tampa Bay pairs a 41.5 total with an 8.5 point spread. Pittsburgh at New England is 41.5 with neither team implied above 23.5. Seattle at Arizona saw the sharpest total drop of the week, from the mid 40s at the open down to 40.5.
The biggest line move on the board is Carolina at Atlanta, which opened with Atlanta favored by 1.5 and has flipped to Carolina by 1.5 to 2.5. That is a three to four point swing, and Tua Tagovailoa not practicing is the reason.
Two quarterback changes matter. Sam Darnold is out in Seattle and Drew Lock starts. Kyler Murray is in concussion protocol and Carson Wentz starts for Minnesota. Atlanta is trending toward Cooper Rush.
Core plays
Josh Allen, BUF, $9,000. Detroit has allowed 378 passing yards, the most in the league through one week. Buffalo has the top implied total at 29.5. Allen threw for 334 yards on only 29 attempts in Week 1 and ran six times. The catch is that this is the Thursday game, so it locks before any other information arrives.
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $9,200. Twenty nine carries in Week 1, which is 88 percent of Detroit's rushing attempts, for 156 yards and two touchdowns, plus five targets. There is no committee behind him. He is the most expensive player on the slate and he has the best role on it.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, $8,800. Fourteen targets, a 36 percent share, and four red zone targets including two inside the 10. Same game, same reasoning. He is priced identically to Ja'Marr Chase and projects higher on every public source checked.
Derrick Henry, BAL, $8,700. He took all five of Baltimore's carries inside the 10 in Week 1. That is the cleanest goal line role in the league right now. New Orleans has allowed 165 rushing yards, 27th, and Baltimore is implied for 27.5 as an 8.5 point favorite.
Bijan Robinson, ATL, $8,900. Carolina has allowed 291 rushing yards. The next worst team in the league is at 220. Robinson took 68 percent of Atlanta's carries and led the team in targets with 10. The problem is that Atlanta is implied for only 20.5 because nobody knows who is playing quarterback, which is exactly why he is in one lineup rather than all four.
Kenneth Walker III, KC, $7,600. Twenty three carries for 173 yards in Week 1 against a Denver run defense that has now allowed 220 yards. This week Indianapolis has allowed 202, 30th in the league, and Kansas City is implied for 26.5.
Trey McBride, ARI, $7,500. Thirteen targets, a 35 percent share, four red zone targets. The only thing wrong with him is Arizona's 18.5 implied total.
Values
Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF, $5,400. One hundred thirty receiving yards on six targets in Week 1, a 21 percent share, in the highest implied total on the slate against the worst pass defense in the league.
DJ Moore, WR, BUF, $6,600. Twenty nine percent of Buffalo's targets and 100 yards in Week 1. Same game environment, $2,200 cheaper than St. Brown.
Michael Mayer, TE, LV, $5,300. He led Las Vegas with seven targets and six catches in Week 1 because Brock Bowers did not play. Bowers did not practice Wednesday either. The Chargers have allowed the 27th most passing yards.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, WAS, $6,000. Sixteen carries, half of Washington's total, in the second highest total game on the board at 50.5, against a Dallas run defense tied for 27th. The one caution is that Kaytron Allen took three carries inside the 10, so the touchdown equity is split.
Quentin Johnston, WR, LAC, $5,800. Six targets in Week 1 and a direct path to the WR1 role, since Ladd McConkey did not practice Wednesday with a rib injury described as leaving his status up in the air.
Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS, $6,000. He is this cheap because Stefon Diggs out-targeted him nine to four in Week 1. Both are in a 50.5 total game and both are under $6,100.
Mark Andrews, TE, BAL, $5,200. Six targets, a 25 percent share, cheaper than George Kittle with a larger role.
Isaiah Likely, TE, NYG, $5,500. Caught all eight of his targets, 28 percent of the team's share.
Sleepers
Kaelon Black, RB, SF, $5,300. He out-carried Christian McCaffrey 14 to 10 in Week 1 at $3,700 less. San Francisco is implied for 29.0. If the 13.5 point spread plays out the way the market expects, Black is the back who benefits from the fourth quarter, not McCaffrey.
Tre' Harris, WR, LAC, $4,900. Six targets in Week 1, and the McConkey absence pushes slot work to him.
Cam Skattebo, RB, NYG, $6,400. Forty nine percent of the Giants' carries against a Rams run defense ranked 29th, in the Monday night game.
Jaxson Dart, QB, NYG, $7,400. Eleven carries and 54 rushing yards in Week 1 is a floor that does not need the passing game to work. The total in his game rose to 47.5 after the Rams lost Myles Garrett to injured reserve.
Stefon Diggs, WR, WAS, $6,100. Team leading nine targets, 31 percent share, in the 50.5 total game.
Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL, $5,000. Zay Flowers did not practice Wednesday with a hamstring. Bateman is the named beneficiary in a 27.5 implied total offense.
Travis Kelce, TE, KC, $5,300. Seventy one yards on five targets against an Indianapolis pass defense ranked 28th. Sauce Gardner will be following Rashee Rice, not him.
Fades
Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF, $9,000. He will be one of the most rostered players on the slate on name value. He was out-carried by a $5,300 rookie in Week 1 and his 8 targets produced 20 yards. A 13.5 point spread is the script that takes a 30 year old back off the field in the fourth quarter.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, CIN, $8,800. Four targets in Week 1, a 12 percent share, behind Mike Gesicki, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown. Two catches for 12 yards. His quarterback is questionable with back tightness. This is the largest gap between price and observed role on the board.
Puka Nacua, WR, LAR, $9,300. The most expensive receiver on the slate. Nine targets in Week 1, fewer than five cheaper receivers, and DailyFantasyFuel projects him for 14.2 while Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 16.2 at $300 less.
Rashee Rice, WR, KC, $7,600. Two targets in Week 1. Sauce Gardner is expected to shadow him.
Colston Loveland, TE, CHI, $5,800. Being written up everywhere as a featured Week 2 play. He had two targets and zero catches in Week 1 while Kalif Raymond led Chicago with nine, and his game is the one wind game of the week.
Stacks
The Buffalo and Detroit game is the stack of the week and it is not close. Highest total, highest implied team total, worst pass defense in the league on one side and the 25th on the other. Allen with DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, brought back with St. Brown and Gibbs, is the main build.
Dallas and Washington is the second stack, a 50.5 total with both teams implied above 23. Dak Prescott with CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens, brought back with McLaurin or Diggs.
The contrarian stack is the Monday night game. Dart with Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely covers 59 percent of the Giants' Week 1 targets, and Skattebo is the runner. Almost nobody builds around the last game of the week.
Lamar Jackson with Mark Andrews is the cheapest way into a 27.5 implied total, since Andrews is $5,200.
Props worth a look
Twenty props are in predictions.json. The six with the largest positive edges:
- DJ Moore over 60.5 receiving yards, -114, estimate 0.60, edge +0.100
- Derrick Henry over 88.5 rushing yards, -113, estimate 0.60, edge +0.100
- Bijan Robinson over 84.5 rushing yards, -114, estimate 0.60, edge +0.097
- Josh Allen over 249.5 passing yards, -114, estimate 0.58, edge +0.080
- Jahmyr Gibbs over 88.5 rushing yards, -114, estimate 0.57, edge +0.070
- Dalton Kincaid over 49.5 receiving yards, -111, estimate 0.56, edge +0.062
Six props are listed with negative edge as warnings rather than as bets. Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkey anytime touchdown are both priced as though those players are healthy, and neither practiced Wednesday. Rashee Rice anytime touchdown ignores both his two target Week 1 and the shadow assignment. James Cook III anytime touchdown ignores that Josh Allen is priced at -110 to score himself. Jahmyr Gibbs at -335 is a fair read of a great role at a price that leaves nothing on the table.
League read
There is still no league read. data/trends/trends.md reads "No weeks recorded yet", data/league.json has an empty entrants map and an empty contest_url, and no week has been parsed or graded. Week 1's Tuesday pull failed because no FanDuel entries capture was ever saved, and that is recorded in data/weeks/2026-wk01/PULL-FAILED.md. Nothing about how these specific friends build lineups is known yet, and inventing tendencies would poison the trends file later.
The general read from Week 1 still applies. A friends league concentrates on name recognition, so Gibbs, McCaffrey, Nacua, Chase and Lamb will be on most entries. Three of those five are on the fade list above for reasons that come from counted Week 1 usage rather than from contrarian instinct. The Contrarian lineup is built to share almost nothing with that field.
This section becomes real the moment a single week of entries is captured. That remains the highest value missing input in the whole project, and it does not require anything from the research pipeline, only a saved copy of the FanDuel contest entries page.
Calibration adjustments
No calibration data exists. data/track/calibration.json is still absent, data/track/lessons.md still reads "No weeks graded yet", and there is no data/weeks/2026-wk01/grade.json. Sample size is zero in every bucket, so no bucket met the procedure's threshold of n of 8 or more with an observed rate more than 8 points below the stated rate. No shrinkage was applied because there is nothing to shrink toward. This is the second consecutive week with a zero sample, and it will stay zero until a week is graded.
Week 1 set three constraints in place of calibration. All three were kept, and one was deliberately loosened:
- The edge cap was widened from 0.07 to 0.10. Week 1 capped every estimate
at 0.07 of edge over the fair probability, on the reasoning that there was no in season usage data. There is now one game of it, and four of this week's edges rest on counted role facts rather than on projection: Henry taking five of five carries inside the 10, Gibbs taking 88 percent of carries, Bijan facing a run defense that has allowed 71 more rushing yards than any other, and DJ Moore's 29 percent share in the top implied total. The largest edge in the file is +0.100 and only three props reach +0.09 or above. If those come in below the book's number when this week is graded, the cap goes back to 0.07 and stays there.
- Every estimate stays between 0.15 and 0.85. The actual range used is
0.220 to 0.700.
- Fair probabilities remove the vig. Eight props had both sides published
and were de-vigged properly. Vig on those two way markets ran 5.2 to 5.6 percent, slightly tighter than the 5.7 to 6.9 percent seen in Week 1. For the twelve one sided props, including all seven anytime touchdown markets, a flat 6 percent overround was removed instead. That assumption is the weakest number in the file and it is the same assumption Week 1 made, so grading two weeks at once will say whether it is right.
The specific thing to check on Tuesday, in order: whether the six positive edge props at +0.04 or better hit at their stated rates, whether widening the cap to 0.10 was justified, and whether the six negative edge warnings actually came in under. The warnings are the cheapest test in the file, because four of the six rest on a practice report rather than on a projection.
Sources
Full citations are in the seven files under research/, each carrying source URLs:
research/injuries.md, designations, Wednesday practice participation and
who gains volume, about 30 sources
research/vegas.md, spreads, totals, implied team totals and line movement
since the openers, 8 sources
research/usage.md, Week 1 targets, carries, target share and red zone
usage, computed from the ESPN game summary API for all sixteen games
research/matchups.md, defense vs position, pass rush, coverage, pace, about
30 sources
research/weather.md, venue, roof status and National Weather Service
forecasts, 6 sources
research/consensus.md, industry projections and where the crowd will land,
7 sources
research/props.md, every prop line and price used here, about 14 sources
Primary sources across those files include the ESPN scoreboard and game summary APIs, the National Weather Service, VegasInsider, Covers, SportsBettingDime, RotoWire, SharpFootballAnalysis, BetMGM, FantasyLabs, Sports Illustrated, SportsLine, FantasyPros, Fox Sports, PFF, NFL.com, and team sites and beat writers.
Four data quality problems were found and are recorded rather than papered over. Several search results returned players who are not on this week's slate at all, including Anthony Richardson, Josh Jacobs and a Travis Etienne listed on Jacksonville, which means those pages are stale caches and their numbers were discarded. A VegasInsider pull returned Atlanta favored in a game every other source has Carolina favored. WalterFootball's Week 2 props page explicitly labels its own numbers as not confirmed sportsbook quotes, so nothing from it was used. And a draft of research/props.md attributed a DraftKings -335 anytime touchdown price to Derrick Henry when it belongs to Jahmyr Gibbs; that was corrected in the file before the props here were built.
Four sources refused to return data this week: FanDuel's own sportsbook page (403), Pro Football Reference (403), TeamRankings (403) and Action Network (returned market IDs rather than odds).
Sunday update
Generated Sunday, September 20, 2026, late morning. This pass revises Wednesday for injuries, weather and line moves. Wednesday's file is preserved at predictions_wednesday.json.
Three things constrain what follows.
Official inactives for the 1pm games post at 11:30am ET, after this was built. Nothing here is a final inactive list. Every status below is the final Friday or Saturday designation plus Sunday morning reporting, and the two genuine game time calls are flagged rather than resolved.
There is still no ODDS_API_KEY, three weeks running. Game lines were rebuilt from the ESPN scoreboard API again. No yardage prop line or price could be re-pulled, because the agent assigned to gather them by hand stalled twice, so every yardage line here is the Wednesday number left alone rather than guessed. Estimates were still revised where news justified it.
Three separate claims from soft sources were checked and discarded this pass. A report that Christian McCaffrey was on injured reserve traced to a stale article. A Rashod Bateman anytime touchdown price of +900 was off by a wide margin against the same page fetched directly, which showed +370 on DraftKings. A claim that David Montgomery's rushing line had fallen to 55.5 did not survive either, with the market sitting near 70. That is the same failure mode recorded in lessons.md, and it is now frequent enough to treat any single unnamed book price as unusable.
What moved
Zay Flowers is the headline. He was downgraded from doubtful to out on Saturday with a hamstring, which repriced Baltimore. Rashod Bateman becomes the top perimeter receiver and climbs from 7.5 to 10.5 at $5,000, moving from sleeper to value. Mark Andrews goes from 8.5 to 9.5 and Derrick Henry from 18.0 to 18.5, since an 8.5 point favorite without its best receiver leans harder on the run. Lamar Jackson eases from 21.5 to 21.0. Flowers' own anytime touchdown prop is dropped.
That news also created the only three props added this week, all from DraftKings prices confirmed by direct fetch: Bateman anytime touchdown at +370 with an estimate of 0.28, Andrews at +200 at 0.38, and Henry at +135 at 0.50. Bateman is held down deliberately, because he caught nothing in Week 1 and the target share is a projection rather than a demonstrated one.
Soldier Field is the worst weather on the board, 20 mph sustained wind and a 94 percent chance of rain. Aaron Jones Sr. rises from 11.5 to 12.5 on the run lean. Justin Jefferson falls from 15.0 to 13.0, which is the one call here that goes against a target bump, since Jauan Jennings is out and Jefferson should see more volume. The weather is judged to outweigh it with Carson Wentz throwing. Foxborough at 75 percent rain and MetLife at 83 percent are wet but calm, and no pool player is in either game.
Atlanta starts third string quarterback Cooper Rush, with Penix out and Tua doubtful. That is the shape of a game plan built around Bijan Robinson, who goes from 20.0 to 21.0. His rushing over is held at 0.60 rather than raised, because Atlanta is only implied for 20.5.
Michael Mayer rises from 8.5 to 10.0 with Brock Bowers doubtful, the same situation that produced a Week 1 change. The Eagles defense eases from 8.5 to 8.0 with Jonathan Greenard out again. Puka Nacua falls from 13.5 to 10.0 as a Monday night pre-game decision on a groin.
The two landmines
Chase Brown is the real problem. A knee kept him out of practice Thursday and Friday, yet Cincinnati attached no game status at all, which is an unusual combination and the reporting is inconsistent between the team page and beat tracking. He is cut from 13.5 to 10.5 and flagged rather than removed, because the rule here is that only out or doubtful forces a substitution. He sits at FLEX in the Balanced lineup. If the 11:30am list has him down, Aaron Jones Sr. at $5,900 fits the room.
Kaelon Black is questionable with a groin after limited Thursday and Friday sessions. Cut from 9.5 to 8.0, flagged, not replaced. He sits at RB in Stars and scrubs, which carries $1,700 of room, so Aaron Jones Sr. at $5,900 is again the swap if he is inactive.
Lineups
Two of the four can no longer be entered. Stack BUF/DET holds six players from Thursday's game and Balanced holds Amon-Ra St. Brown. Both are kept so they grade against the Wednesday call, and both now say so in their reason.
Of the two still enterable, Stars and scrubs leads at 111.5 and Contrarian NYG/LAR sits at 109.5. Stars and scrubs is the play, with the Kaelon Black caveat above.
Lines
No total moved more than a point and no spread moved more than a point, so nothing here forced a change on its own. Minnesota at Chicago came down from 48.5 to 47.5, New Orleans at Baltimore from 46.5 to 45.5, and Cincinnati at Houston from 46.5 to 45.5. Dallas came in from -4.5 to -3.5 and Kansas City from -6.5 to -6.0. Thursday finished Buffalo 41, Detroit 31.
Eleven props sit on that Thursday game. They are left untouched so they grade against the Wednesday call, the same treatment used in Week 1.
Sunday sources
research/inactives_sunday_early.md, the eight 1pm games, team injury pages
and beat reporting
research/inactives_sunday_late2.md, the late afternoon, Sunday night and
Monday night games, including the McCaffrey correction
research/weather_sunday.md, National Weather Service hourly forecasts for
every outdoor and retractable roof venue
research/props_sunday.md, the prop price attempt and what could not be
confirmed