Research pass: wednesday, generated 2026-09-10T01:47:24+00:00.
Suggested lineups
Burrow and Chase in the highest total game on the board, paired with the two backfields that lost their competition this week. Gibbs no longer splits with David Montgomery, who was traded to Houston, and Etienne inherits the New Orleans work with Kamara expected inactive. Titans are the cheapest defense on the slate against a quarterback who led the league in interceptions.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | $8,200 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | $9,100 |
| RB | Travis Etienne Jr. | NO | RB | $6,800 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | $8,900 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | $6,200 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | $6,200 |
| TE | Isaiah Likely | NYG | TE | $5,100 |
| FLEX | Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | $6,000 |
| DEF | Titans | TEN | DEF | $3,200 |
Herbert and McConkey stack the slate's top implied team total at 28.5 against the league's 30th ranked linebacker corps. Lloyd at $4,900 is the cheapest path to a projected lead back and pays for McCaffrey and Chase. Warren attacks a Baltimore linebacker room that lost Van Noy and Dre'Mont Jones.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | $7,600 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | $9,000 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | $6,800 |
| WR | Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | $6,500 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | $8,900 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | $6,200 |
| TE | Tyler Warren | IND | TE | $5,600 |
| FLEX | MarShawn Lloyd | GB | RB | $4,900 |
| DEF | Ravens | BAL | DEF | $4,300 |
Goff, Gibbs and St. Brown triple up on Detroit at 28.25 implied against a secondary the beat writers are calling tattered, with Nacua added as the fourth expensive piece. The savings come from three players whose roles changed this week: Mayer with Bowers out, Vele with Tyson on IR, and Lloyd with Jacobs on the exempt list.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jared Goff | DET | QB | $7,800 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | $9,100 |
| RB | Jordan Mason | MIN | RB | $5,400 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | $9,100 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | $8,600 |
| WR | Devaughn Vele | NO | WR | $5,000 |
| TE | Michael Mayer | LV | TE | $4,600 |
| FLEX | MarShawn Lloyd | GB | RB | $4,900 |
| DEF | Jaguars | JAC | DEF | $5,000 |
A full Giants stack against the defense that allowed the most passing yards and the second most passing touchdowns in the league last season, in a game with a 48.5 total and the third fastest offense in football. McBride is the biggest model to ownership gap on the slate. This is built to be different from the Gibbs and Chase lineups the rest of the league will submit.
| Player | Team | Pos | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jaxson Dart | NYG | QB | $7,300 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | $8,800 |
| RB | Travis Etienne Jr. | NO | RB | $6,800 |
| WR | Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | $7,700 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | $6,200 |
| WR | Devaughn Vele | NO | WR | $5,000 |
| TE | Trey McBride | ARI | TE | $7,600 |
| FLEX | Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | $6,300 |
| DEF | Titans | TEN | DEF | $3,200 |
Player pool
QB
| Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Pts/$1k | Tier | Actual | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | LAC | ARI | $7,600 | 21.0 | 2.76 | core | – | Chargers carry the slate's top implied total at 28.5 and Arizona finished 27th in pressure rate outside Josh Sweat, so he gets time to throw at a price $1,300 below Josh Allen. |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | TB | $8,200 | 20.8 | 2.54 | core | – | Highest total on the board at 50.5 with Chase and Higgins both full participants after their camp scares. |
| Jared Goff | DET | NO | $7,800 | 19.4 | 2.49 | core | – | Detroit is implied for 28.25 against a Saints secondary the local beat is openly calling tattered. |
| Josh Allen | BUF | @HOU | $8,900 | 19.4 | 2.18 | fade | – | Most expensive QB on the slate but Buffalo is implied for only 23.0 and Houston's Will Anderson Jr. anchors one of the league's best pass rushes. |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | DAL | $7,300 | 19.0 | 2.60 | sleeper | – | Dallas finished dead last in passing yards allowed and 31st in passing touchdowns allowed in 2025 and did not fix it. Giants play at the third fastest pace in the league. |
RB
| Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Pts/$1k | Tier | Actual | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | NO | $9,100 | 22.4 | 2.46 | core | – | David Montgomery was traded to Houston and Isiah Pacheco is on IR, so the committee that capped him in 2025 is gone. Highest implied total among RB spots. |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | @PIT | $8,800 | 19.5 | 2.22 | core | – | Workload is unchallenged and Pittsburgh installs a new Patrick Graham scheme in a live game for the first time. |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | @LAR | $9,000 | 19.2 | 2.13 | core | – | Clear lead back in a 48.5 total game the market has kept within a field goal all week. |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | BAL | $8,600 | 17.6 | 2.05 | value | – | Efficient lead back, but Baltimore's front is the one part of that defense that did not get thinner this offseason. |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | NO | @DET | $6,800 | 15.8 | 2.32 | value | – | Alvin Kamara is expected to be inactive with a knee injury, which hands Etienne the New Orleans backfield in the second highest total on the slate. |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | WAS | $8,100 | 15.4 | 1.90 | core | – | Philadelphia's entire offensive identity against a Washington front seven that graded mid tier last year. |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | @NYG | $6,800 | 14.4 | 2.12 | value | – | Lead back in Dallas after 13 total touchdowns last season, in a 48.5 total against a rebuilding Giants front. |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | DAL | $6,300 | 12.4 | 1.97 | value | – | Back from a severe ankle injury as the presumptive Giants starter in a fast paced game they should stay in. |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | @MIN | $4,900 | 11.5 | 2.35 | sleeper | – | Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner Exempt List with a court date reported for September 10, which makes Lloyd the projected lead back at the cheapest usable RB price on the slate. |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | MIA | $7,000 | 11.0 | 1.57 | fade | – | Ankle sprain from August 23 and still not back to full practice. Kubiak will not commit to a workload even if he plays, and Las Vegas is implied for only 21.75. |
| Jordan Mason | MIN | GB | $5,400 | 9.8 | 1.81 | sleeper | – | Real share of a Minnesota backfield in a game where the line flipped a full three points toward the Vikings. |
WR
| Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Pts/$1k | Tier | Actual | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | TB | $8,900 | 18.0 | 2.02 | core | – | Full participant since Monday after the hyperextended knee, in the highest total game on the board. |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | SF | $9,100 | 17.8 | 1.96 | core | – | Led the NFL with 129 receptions last season in an offense built to funnel him targets, in a 48.5 total. |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | NO | $8,600 | 16.4 | 1.91 | core | – | Goff's security blanket against a Saints secondary in a rebuild, with Detroit implied for 28.25. |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | NE | $9,000 | 15.6 | 1.73 | value | – | Clear number one target, but Christian Gonzalez and the PFF top graded corner room is the toughest individual matchup on the slate. |
| Nico Collins | HOU | BUF | $7,700 | 15.4 | 2.00 | value | – | Tank Dell is on IR and Jayden Higgins tore his ACL, so Collins is the unquestioned target hog on a team that had to trade for Kayshon Boutte to fill out the room. |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | @NYG | $8,600 | 14.4 | 1.67 | core | – | Dallas is implied for 25.75 against last year's worst pass defense, though George Pickens now takes a real share of the targets. |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | DAL | $7,700 | 14.2 | 1.84 | sleeper | – | Full practice participant coming off the torn ACL, and the Giants released Darius Slayton, which reads as a vote of confidence. Draws the defense that allowed the most passing yards in the league last season. |
| Chris Olave | NO | @DET | $7,400 | 14.2 | 1.92 | fade | – | Projected at 34 to 37 percent ownership in one model, which is a lot of exposure for a receiver on a team implied for 21.25 as a seven point road underdog. |
| George Pickens | DAL | @NYG | $8,200 | 13.8 | 1.68 | value | – | Second big body in the highest scoring Dallas projection in years against the league's most unsettled corner room. |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | @KC | $6,200 | 12.6 | 2.03 | sleeper | – | Signed in Denver to pair with Courtland Sutton and draws a Kansas City secondary starting three new defensive backs. |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | ARI | $6,500 | 12.4 | 1.91 | value | – | Slot receiver against a Cardinals linebacker corps ranked 30th in the league, in the slate's top implied total. |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | @PHI | $6,200 | 12.0 | 1.94 | sleeper | – | Washington plays at the fourth fastest pace in the league and projects to be throwing from behind as a 5.5 point underdog. |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | @CAR | $6,200 | 11.8 | 1.90 | sleeper | – | Rome Odunze is genuinely day to day with a foot injury and DJ Moore was traded to Buffalo, which opens real volume in Chicago. |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | @CIN | $6,400 | 9.6 | 1.50 | fade | – | Still working on a side field with trainers as of Wednesday with a toe sprain. Bowles is only hopeful, and the crowd is treating him as a value lock. |
| Devaughn Vele | NO | @DET | $5,000 | 8.8 | 1.76 | sleeper | – | Jordyn Tyson is on IR for at least four games, which makes Vele the starter opposite Chris Olave in a 49.5 total. |
TE
| Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Pts/$1k | Tier | Actual | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | ARI | @LAC | $7,600 | 13.2 | 1.74 | core | – | The largest gap on the slate between what the models project and what the field will roster, against the league's 30th ranked linebacker corps. |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | @CAR | $6,000 | 11.6 | 1.93 | value | – | Multiple Bears previews now call him Caleb Williams' likely top target with DJ Moore gone and Odunze hurting. |
| Tyler Warren | IND | BAL | $5,600 | 10.4 | 1.86 | value | – | Baltimore lost Kyle Van Noy and Dre'Mont Jones, thinning the linebacker room that has to carry the middle of the field. |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | NO | $5,800 | 8.6 | 1.48 | fade | – | Dan Campbell would only say I don't know about the hip. A genuine tossup priced like a starter. |
| Michael Mayer | LV | MIA | $4,600 | 8.4 | 1.83 | sleeper | – | Brock Bowers is ruled out, which hands Mayer the Las Vegas tight end role outright at $4,600. |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | DAL | $5,100 | 8.2 | 1.61 | sleeper | – | Signed with the Giants specifically to attack a Dallas secondary that allowed the most passing yards in the league last season. |
DEF
| Player | Team | Opp | Salary | Proj | Pts/$1k | Tier | Actual | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | JAC | CLE | $5,000 | 8.2 | 1.64 | core | – | Ranked the number one streaming defense for Week 1. Cleveland allowed more fantasy points to opposing defenses than any team in 2025. |
| Titans | TEN | NYJ | $3,200 | 7.6 | 2.37 | value | – | Cheapest defense on the board against Geno Smith, who was sacked a career high 55 times and threw a league high 17 interceptions in 2025. |
| Ravens | BAL | @IND | $4,300 | 6.4 | 1.49 | value | – | Daniel Jones is coming off an Achilles injury behind a line that has to handle a front that just added Trey Hendrickson. |
Props
Fair is the de-vigged book probability. Est is the research estimate. Edge is the gap. Recommended means edge of three points or more. These are estimates, not guarantees.
| Player | Market | Side | Line | Book | Odds | Fair | Est | Edge | Result | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbsrec | Rush yds | over | 84.5 | consensus | -114 | 50% | 57% | +7 | The under case rests on him splitting early down work with David Montgomery. Montgomery was traded to Houston in the offseason and Isiah Pacheco is on IR, so Detroit's backfield is Gibbs and replacement level behind him, in the slate's second highest total. | |
| Nico Collinsrec | Rec yds | over | 68.5 | consensus | -110 | 50% | 56% | +6 | This number sits well below his 2025 per game rate because of the Buffalo matchup, but Houston lost Tank Dell to IR and Jayden Higgins to a torn ACL and had to trade for Kayshon Boutte. There is no one else to throw to. | |
| Jalen Hurtsrec | Pass yds | over | 209.5 | consensus | -113 | 50% | 56% | +6 | The lowest quarterback number on the board. Washington is without starting corner Trey Amos and has pushed slot man Sainristil outside, and Philadelphia is implied for 25.0, which is enough scoring to need more than 209 passing yards. | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigbarec | Rec yds | under | 81.5 | consensus | -113 | 50% | 56% | +6 | New England has the PFF top graded cornerback room with Christian Gonzalez, and Seattle's exploitable area is underneath rather than on the perimeter. This is the toughest individual receiver matchup on the slate. | |
| Puka Nacuarec | Receptions | over | 7.5 | fanduel | +116 | 43% | 49% | +6 | Plus money on the player who led the NFL with 129 catches last season, 7.6 a game, in an offense designed to feed him. FanDuel's own price leans under, which is the disagreement worth taking. | |
| Josh Allenrec | Pass yds | under | 223.5 | consensus | -112 | 50% | 55% | +4 | Houston's Will Anderson Jr. anchors one of the best pass rushes in football, Buffalo is implied for only 23.0, and Allen's legs take away dropbacks near the goal line. | |
| Dallas Goedertrec | Receptions | over | 5.5 | consensus | -113 | 50% | 55% | +4 | Washington's weakness is underneath, where the slot corner has been moved outside to cover for the loss of Trey Amos. Goedert works exactly that part of the field. | |
| CeeDee Lambrec | Rec yds | under | 77.5 | consensus | -113 | 50% | 55% | +4 | George Pickens carries a 67.5 line of his own, which is the first time in years Lamb has had a genuine co-number-one taking targets out of his share. | |
| Saquon Barkleyrec | Rush yds | over | 77.5 | consensus | -110 | 50% | 54% | +4 | Philadelphia is the most run committed offense in the league and Barkley is the whole plan. The offset is that Hurts takes the short touchdown carries, which caps the ceiling more than the yardage floor. | |
| AJ Barnerrec | Anytime TD | over | – | fanduel | +260 | 26% | 30% | +4 | New England's cornerback room grades first in the league on the outside but its linebacker and tight end coverage depth is the flagged 2026 weakness. Barner is the cheap way to attack the part of that defense that is actually soft. | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brownrec | Rec yds | over | 77.5 | consensus | -114 | 50% | 54% | +4 | Detroit at 28.25 implied against a secondary its own beat writers describe as tattered. The risk is a blowout shortening the fourth quarter. | |
| Christian McCaffreyrec | Anytime TD | over | – | consensus | -135 | 54% | 57% | +3 | The least ambiguous role in this entire prop set. Clear goal line back in a game the market has kept inside three points all week. | |
| Joe Burrow | Pass TDs | under | 2.5 | consensus | -214 | 64% | 66% | +2 | Cincinnati can protect a lead with Chase Brown, and 2.5 passing touchdowns is a demanding Week 1 number before timing is sharp. Small edge, the market is already most of the way there. | |
| Chris Olave | Anytime TD | over | – | consensus | -125 | 52% | 55% | +2 | Jordyn Tyson is on IR for at least four games, so Olave is the only established receiver New Orleans has. Even as a seven point underdog, that concentration of red zone targets is worth a small edge. | |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Anytime TD | over | – | fanduel | +150 | 38% | 33% | -5 | Another fade. Jones is 31 and Jordan Mason has a real share of this backfield at $5,400, so the touchdown equity is split more than the price implies. | |
| Zay Flowers | Anytime TD | over | – | consensus | -200 | 63% | 56% | -7 | Included as a warning. Baltimore's red zone work is split between Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson himself, and -200 prices a receiver as if he is the primary goal line option. Popular and too short. |
Research notes
Week 1, 2026: Wednesday research
Generated Wednesday, September 9, 2026. Games run Thursday September 10 through Monday September 14. Sixteen games, full slate.
Two data gaps shaped this pass. There is no ODDS_API_KEY in .env, so the automated odds pull failed and there is no odds/game_lines.json or odds/props_summary.json for this week. Every line and every price below was gathered by hand from public sources and is cited. Second, this is the first graded week of the season, so calibration.json, trends.md and last week's grade.json do not exist yet. See the Calibration adjustments section for what was done instead.
Salaries come from the live FanDuel list pulled Wednesday, 547 players across 32 teams. Where a web source disagreed with that file on a player's team, the salary file was treated as correct, because several players changed teams in the 2026 offseason and much of the writing on the web still describes 2025 rosters.
Slate overview
The market likes two games well above the rest. Tampa Bay at Cincinnati has the highest total on the board at 50.5 with the Bengals favored by 3.5, and New Orleans at Detroit sits at 49.5 with Detroit favored by 7. Dallas at the Giants and San Francisco at the Rams share third at 48.5.
Los Angeles carries the top implied team total at 28.5 against Arizona, with Detroit right behind at 28.25 and Cincinnati at 27.0. At the other end, Cleveland is implied for 16.0 as a nine point road underdog in a 40.5 total game, which is the worst DFS environment of the week.
Three games are worth avoiding outright. Cleveland at Jacksonville pairs a big spread with a low total. The Jets at Tennessee is the lowest total on the board at 38.5. Miami at Las Vegas is second lowest at 40.5 and involves the two slowest paced offenses in the league.
San Francisco at the Rams is not at SoFi Stadium. It is the league's first regular season game in Melbourne, played at the MCG, which is open air. The forecast there is cool and calm, so it is not a weather problem, but it is not a dome either.
Heat is the real weather story. Cleveland at Jacksonville is forecast for 91 to 92 degrees with an 80 percent thunderstorm chance timed to the second half of a 1pm kickoff. The Jets at Tennessee is forecast for 94 degrees at a 1pm kickoff. No game currently shows a confirmed wind reading over 15 mph, but the weather service drops wind detail beyond two or three days, so Sunday wind is genuinely unknown rather than confirmed calm. Recheck Friday.
The biggest structural fact of the week is how much roster movement happened over the offseason and how little of the public analysis has caught up. A.J. Brown is in New England, Mike Evans is in San Francisco, Kyler Murray starts in Minnesota, DJ Moore is in Buffalo, David Montgomery is in Houston, Kenneth Walker is in Kansas City, Travis Etienne is in New Orleans, and Isaiah Likely is with the Giants. Week 1 pricing is anchored to last year's production, so this is where the pool is softest.
Core plays
Jahmyr Gibbs at $9,100 is the chalk of the slate and deserves to be. He is projected at 47 to 49 percent ownership, which normally argues for a fade, but the committee that capped him last season no longer exists. David Montgomery was traded to Houston and Isiah Pacheco is on injured reserve, so Detroit's backfield is Gibbs and replacement level, in the second highest implied team total on the board.
Justin Herbert at $7,600 is the best price on the slate. The Chargers hold the top implied team total at 28.5, and Arizona finished 27th in pressure rate and 28th in sacks in 2025 outside of Josh Sweat. He is priced $1,300 below Josh Allen and $800 below Lamar Jackson.
Joe Burrow at $8,200 gets the highest total on the board. Ja'Marr Chase has been a full participant since Monday after hyperextending his knee on August 25, and Tee Higgins is full after a heel contusion.
Trey McBride at $7,600 is the largest gap on the slate between what the models project and what the field will actually roster. He faces a Cardinals linebacker corps ranked 30th in the league. Note that Arizona is his own opponent here, which is the point: he is the one reliable red zone target on a team implied for only 19.0, and low team totals suppress ownership more than they suppress target share.
Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson round out the expensive tier, all in games with totals at 42.5 or better and none carrying an injury designation.
Values
Nico Collins at $7,700 is the cleanest value on the board. Houston lost Tank Dell to injured reserve and Jayden Higgins to a torn ACL, and had to trade for Kayshon Boutte to fill out the room. There is nobody else to throw to.
Travis Etienne at $6,800 inherits the New Orleans backfield. Alvin Kamara did not practice early in the week with a knee injury and multiple reports expect him to be a game day inactive.
Ladd McConkey at $6,500 works the slot against the linebacker group described above, in the slate's top implied team total.
Colston Loveland at $6,000 and Tyler Warren at $5,600 are the two tight ends whose price has not caught their role. Multiple Bears previews now call Loveland the likely top target for Caleb Williams with DJ Moore traded away and Rome Odunze hurting. Warren works the middle against a Baltimore linebacker room that lost Kyle Van Noy and Dre'Mont Jones.
Javonte Williams at $6,800 is the lead back in a 48.5 total against a Giants front seven in a rebuild, after 13 total touchdowns last season.
Sleepers
MarShawn Lloyd at $4,900 is the play of the week at the price. Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner Exempt List with a court date reported for September 10, and a suspension looks likely. Lloyd projects as Green Bay's lead back in a game where the line moved a full three points toward Minnesota.
Michael Mayer at $4,600 is the most overlooked name on the slate. Brock Bowers is ruled out, which hands Mayer the Las Vegas tight end role outright. None of the public analysis this week has picked this up, because most of it still assumes Bowers plays.
Devaughn Vele at $5,000 starts opposite Chris Olave with Jordyn Tyson on injured reserve for at least four games, in a 49.5 total game.
Jaylen Waddle at $6,200 signed in Denver and draws a Kansas City secondary starting three new defensive backs after losing Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook, replacing more than 2,400 defensive snaps.
Isaiah Likely at $5,100 went to the Giants specifically to attack a Dallas secondary that allowed the most passing yards in the league last season and finished 31st in passing touchdowns allowed.
Luther Burden III at $6,200 gains if Odunze sits. Terry McLaurin at $6,200 gets the fourth fastest pace in the league and a script that should have Washington throwing from behind.
Fades
Ashton Jeanty at $7,000 is the one to be most careful with. The ankle sprain dates to August 23 and he still had not returned to full practice this week. Klint Kubiak will not commit to a workload even if he plays, and Las Vegas is implied for only 21.75.
Chris Olave is projected at 34 to 37 percent ownership in one model, higher than Ja'Marr Chase. That is heavy exposure to a receiver on a team implied for 21.25 as a seven point road underdog.
Emeka Egbuka at $6,400 was still working on a side field with trainers on Wednesday with a toe sprain. Todd Bowles is only hopeful. The crowd is treating him as a value lock because Mike Evans left, and the sites are openly split on him.
Sam LaPorta at $5,800 is a genuine tossup, not a formality. Dan Campbell would only say "I don't know" about the hip.
Josh Allen at $8,900 is the most expensive quarterback on the slate but Buffalo is implied for only 23.0, and Houston's Will Anderson Jr. anchors one of the best pass rushes in football.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba at $9,000 draws Christian Gonzalez and the cornerback room PFF grades first in the league. Seattle's path is underneath, not outside.
Stacks
Four lineups are in predictions.json, all legal and between $58,900 and $59,800.
Stack: CIN/TB at $59,700 and 129.0 projected is the top build. Burrow and Chase in the highest total game on the board, paired with the two backfields that lost their competition this week, and the cheapest defense on the slate.
Balanced at $59,800 stacks Herbert with McConkey in the top implied team total and uses Lloyd at $4,900 to pay for McCaffrey and Chase.
Stars and scrubs at $59,500 triples Detroit with Goff, Gibbs and St. Brown and adds Nacua, funded by three players whose roles changed this week: Mayer, Vele and Lloyd.
Contrarian at $58,900 runs a full Giants stack of Dart, Nabers and Skattebo against the worst pass defense in the league from last season, in a 48.5 total with the third fastest offense in football, plus McBride for leverage.
Props worth a look
Sixteen props are in predictions.json. Every line and price traces to a public source listed in research/props.md. Three came from a page that named FanDuel directly and are marked fanduel; the rest are aggregate numbers from ESPN's odds pages and are marked consensus, because labeling an aggregate as a FanDuel price would be wrong. Reshop before betting.
The best edge is Jahmyr Gibbs over 84.5 rushing yards at -114, estimated at 0.570 against a fair 0.504. The public case for the under rests on him splitting early down work with David Montgomery, and Montgomery plays for Houston now.
Nico Collins over 68.5 receiving yards at -110 is next, estimated 0.560. The line is set below his 2025 per game rate because of the Buffalo matchup, but it does not account for Houston having no other healthy receiver.
Puka Nacua over 7.5 receptions at +116 is the only plus money play on the list. He led the NFL with 129 catches last season, 7.6 per game.
Two props are included with negative edge as warnings rather than plays. Zay Flowers anytime touchdown at -200 prices a receiver as the primary goal line option on a team that also has Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson. Aaron Jones anytime touchdown at +150 ignores that Jordan Mason has a real share of that backfield at $5,400.
One prop was deliberately left out. Kyren Williams anytime touchdown showed +500 on one aggregate view and -140 on a FanDuel specific citation. That gap is too large to resolve from here, so it is not in the file.
League read
There is no league read this week. data/trends/trends.md does not exist, data/league.json has an empty entrants map and an empty contest_url, and no week has been parsed or graded yet. There is no basis for saying which friend leans to which player, and inventing tendencies before a single lineup has been observed would poison the trends file later.
What can be said generally is that Week 1 in a friends league concentrates on name recognition. Gibbs, Chase, Nacua, McCaffrey and Barkley will show up on most entries. The Contrarian lineup above is built to be different from that without giving up much projection, and the three cheap role changes (Lloyd, Mayer, Vele) are the pieces least likely to be duplicated.
Once the first week is parsed on Tuesday, analyze.py will populate trends.md and this section becomes real.
Calibration adjustments
No calibration data exists. data/track/calibration.json is absent, data/track/lessons.md reads "No weeks graded yet", and there is no prior grade.json. Sample size is zero in every bucket. No bucket met the threshold in the procedure of n of 8 or more with an observed rate more than 8 points below the stated rate, because no bucket has any observations at all. No shrinkage rule was applied, because there was nothing to shrink toward.
In place of calibration, three deliberate constraints were used, and they should be checked against results when this week is graded:
- Every estimate was capped at 0.07 of edge over the devigged fair
probability. The largest edge in the file is Gibbs at +0.066. Week 1 has no in-season usage data, so large stated edges would be false precision.
- Every estimate sits between 0.15 and 0.85, as the procedure requires. The
actual range used is 0.300 to 0.660.
- Fair probabilities were computed by removing the vig from both sides where
both sides were available, rather than using the raw price. Vig on the two way markets ran 5.7 to 6.9 percent. For the anytime touchdown props only one side was published, so a flat 6 percent was removed instead, which is an assumption and is the weakest number in the file.
The specific thing to check on Tuesday is whether the 0.07 cap was too conservative or not conservative enough. If the props in the 0.53 to 0.57 estimated band hit at close to the stated rate, the cap can be widened next week. If they come in below the book's fair probability, then Week 1 research without usage data is worth less than the estimates assumed and the cap should tighten.
Sources
Full citations are in the seven files under research/, which carry a source URL for each claim:
research/injuries.md, designations, practice participation and who gains
volume
research/vegas.md, spreads, totals, implied team totals and line movementresearch/usage.md, target share, backfield splits and the role changesresearch/matchups.md, defense vs position, pass rush, coverage and paceresearch/weather.md, venue, roof status and forecastresearch/consensus.md, industry projections and projected ownershipresearch/props.md, every prop line and price used here
Primary sources across those files include ESPN odds and xFPA, VegasInsider, Covers, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, NFL.com, RotoWire, FantasyPros, Stokastic, Sharp Football Analysis, the National Weather Service, and team beat writers.
Two data quality problems were found and are recorded rather than papered over. A RotoGrinders optimizer article returned matchups that are not on this week's schedule, so its picks were excluded as stale. Several wire stories attribute Giants quotes to "coach John Harbaugh", who coaches Baltimore, so the coach attribution in those specific stories is not trusted even though the practice participation facts are corroborated elsewhere.